CDT Update June 06, 2020

Here is an update concerning Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Changes From Previous Update:

- The tropical storm warning has been expanded to include SW MS

Overview:

• TS Cristobal is forecast to move northward through the Gulf of Mexico and gradually strengthen today and tomorrow

• On this forecast track, we expect impacts to begin across portions of SE LA and coastal MS this evening and overnight.

Confidence: We have moderate to high confidence in the impacts associated with this storm

Impacts:

• Several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall are possible, with some rounds well ahead of the storm. Flash flooding will be possible - especially where any rain bands result in prolonged periods of heavy rainfall

• Coastal flooding is expected due to storm surge. The following inundation depths are forecast: 3-5 ft from the mouth of the MS River to Ocean Springs 2-4 ft from Morgan City to the mouth of the MS River 1-3 ft from Ocean Springs to the MS/AL border and around the shores of Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas

• Sustained tropical storm force winds are expected across portions of of SE LA and SW and Coastal MS. Strong tropical storm force winds (greater than 58mph will be possible across some areas as well)

• The greatest impacts (highest winds, surge, and rain) could occur well away from the center of the storm depending on its structure as it approaches the coast.

The attached briefing provides more specific information regarding the threats associated with this system.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent following the 4pm CDT Advisory. If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429. Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster. Alternatively, you can reach us by email at sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov or through NWSChat.

Regards,

Danielle Manning

Meteorologist

NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge