Tropical Storm Ida Update - Friday, August 27, 2021 5 AM

Click HERE for an update concerning Tropical Storm Ida.

Changes from the Previous Update:

• Ida is now expected to become a major hurricane just before landfall along the Louisiana coast.

• Some adjustments have been made to threat levels given the current forecast.

Overview:

Tropical Storm Ida is located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands. It will continue moving northwestward and is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico late tonight or early tomorrow morning. It will then strengthen as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.

Confidence:

Confidence continues to increase and we have high confidence that Ida will bring significant impacts to portions of Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. Exact impacts, however, could still change some depending on Ida's exact track and intensity.

Impacts:

• Major, life-threatening storm surge flooding will be possible along the immediate coast. The following peak storm surge inundation is currently forecast. These values may be adjusted upwards with future forecasts:

  • 7-11ft: Morgan City to Ocean Springs
  • 4-7ft: Ocean Springs to the Alabama border
  • 3-5ft: Lake Pontchartrain
  • 2-4ft: Lake Maurepas

• Ida is now expected to become a major hurricane before landfall. A wide swath of wind damage will be possible along Ida's track.

• Rainfall of 8 to 16 inches is currently forecast with isolated amounts of 20 inches possible. The heaviest rainfall will occur in bands, and flash flooding is likely wherever any training bands result in prolonged heavy rainfall.

• As water drains into area rivers, additional flooding will be possible, however, it is too soon to say which rivers will see the greatest impacts.

• A few tornadoes will be possible in the storm’s rain bands. Tornadoes in these situations are typically short-lived, but they move very quickly.

The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent following the 10 AM CDT advisory update from NHC. 

If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.

Regards,
Shawn O'Neil Meteorologist/Observation Program Leader
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge