Tropical Storm Zeta Update - October 27, 2020 4:45 PM

Click HERE for an update concerning Tropical Storm Zeta. 

Changes from previous update: 

• The track has shifted slightly farther west and slightly faster. Note that any further shift west will result in greater impacts across the New Orleans metro and portions of the north shore.

• Expected impacts have not changed

Overview:

• Zeta is forecast to emerge into the Gulf this morning and strengthen back into a hurricane. The current forecast still calls for Zeta to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Southeast Louisiana.
• This system will bring a multi-hazard threat to the area.

Confidence:

• If the current forecast holds, moderate to significant impacts are expected across portions of SE LA and S MS.
• Moderate confidence exists in the magnitude of the impacts.

Impacts:

Storm Surge:

• 5 to 8 feet of inundation is now possible from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the MS/AL line. 4 to 6 ft of inundation will be possible along immediate coastal areas from Port Fourchon to the mouth of the Pearl River. 2 to 4 feet of inundation for the immediate coastal areas west of Port Fourchon and along the shores of Lake Pontchartrain. 1 to 3 feet of inundation for the shores of Lake Maurepas.

• Storm surge impacts will be greatest Wednesday into Wednesday evening

• Expect several low-lying, coastal roads to become impassable due to flooding

• Some areas may become cut off or inaccessible.

Rainfall/Flooding:

• Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is currently forecast. Locally higher amounts will be possible. The highest rain totals will be along and east of the center.

• Expect ponding of water in low lying areas and some potential for localized flash flooding.

• Rainfall impacts are expected from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Wind and tornado:

• Sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane force gusts are expected across a large swath of SE LA and coastal MS. Sustained hurricane force winds will be possible near Zeta's track.

• These winds could result in downed and uprooted trees, power outages, and damage to weaker and poorly constructed structures. 

• A few tornadoes will be possible in the storm’s rain bands mainly to the east of the center. Tornadoes in these situations are typically short-lived, but they move very quickly. The highest tornado threat will generally be across areas southeast of a line from Houma to Covington to Poplarville.

The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov

Next Update and Contact Information:?

The next update will be sent by following the 10pm advisory. If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429. Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster. Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.