Tropical Weather Update - August 9, 2021 8 AM

Click HERE for a quick update concerning the potential for tropical cyclone development over the western Atlantic in the next 5 days.

Changes from the previous update:

• The chance of development over the next 2-5 days has increased for disturbance 1 (the one approaching the Lesser Antilles)

• The chance of development over the next 2-5 days has decreased for disturbance 2 (the one still several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles)

Overview:

There are two disturbances with a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.  Neither of these disturbances poses any immediate threat to the Gulf Coast, but should continue to be monitored.

Disturbance One

• Currently located about 150 miles east of Barbados
• Has a 70% chance of development in both the next 2 days and the next 5 days as it moves west-northwestward
• A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, which would mean the start of full advisory packages (forecast cone, etc) from NHC
• This system could be approaching Florida by next weekend, and it is too soon to say whether it will enter the Gulf.

Disturbance Two

• Currently located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles
• Has a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days (10% next 48 hours) as it moves generally westward
• Development of this system is looking less likely

The graphic in the (HERE) hyperlinks is two disturbances including their current locations and development chances.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent tomorrow, or if there are any significant changes later today.  If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.

Regards,
Danielle Manning
Meteorologist
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge