Tropical Weather Update For June 17, 2021 At 6:00 AM

Click HERE for the latest update on the tropics.

Changes from the previous update: 

• The chance of development in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 2 days has increased to 80%

• Confidence continues to increase that very heavy rainfall will occur in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi.

Overview:

There is a HIGH (80%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days.

There is a HIGH (90%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.  

Impacts:

• This system could impact the northern Gulf Coast region starting Friday through the weekend. Without a formed system, there is still uncertainty on any specific impacts, but the greatest concern remains heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
• Preliminary rainfall forecast amounts are expected to mostly range from 4-10 inches with some areas possibly seeing greater than 10 inch amounts. But, again, we emphasize this is preliminary, and amounts could shift lower or higher depending on the exact track, size and speed of movement of the tropical system.
• Increased tides will be possible across our area. Coastal Inundation of 1-3 ft. These ranges are preliminary and are dependent upon the size, track, and strength of the system.
• Wind gusts up to 35 to 45mph will be possible inside bands of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms starting as early as late Friday afternoon or Friday evening, especially in areas near the Southeast LA/MS coasts and around Lake Pontchartrain.
• Now is the time to review preparedness plans since we are only in the beginning of hurricane season.

The attached hyperlinks briefing highlights the likely development area and the forecasted preliminary rainfall and areas at risk for severe weather associated with this system.