Excessive Rainfall and Tropical Update - August 19, 2022 7 AM CDT

Click HERE and HERE for an update concerning the heavy rainfall threat today as well as an update on the weak tropical disturbance forecast to move into the southwest portion of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Overview:

WHAT:  MARGINAL RISK of excessive rainfall.

WHEN: Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the forecast area. Coverage in shower and thunderstorm activity may eventually expand to the remainder of the forecast area later this morning or into the afternoon hours.

WHERE: All of Southeast Louisiana and Coastal/South Mississippi.

CONFIDENCE: We are confident that there will be thunderstorms across the area and moderate to high confidence in heavy rainfall somewhere across the forecast area today. Exactly where this occurs has a much lower confidence level. Heavily urbanized and other flood-prone areas may experience flooding today, especially if multiple storms impact the same location(s).

Impacts:

The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:

• Wind gusts up to 50 mph in the strongest activity

• Trees and powerlines could be damaged and lead to isolated power outages

• Rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour could cause flooding of low-lying and poorly drained areas

We continue to monitor the tropical disturbance moving northwest from the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. NHC gives this area a medium (40%) chance of developing into a tropical depression before making landfall in the vicinity of the lower Rio Grande Valley. No local impacts expected from this disturbance.