Tropical Depression 19 Update - 09/12/2020 5:00pm

Changes from previous update: 

• No major changes since the previous advisory.

Overview:

• Tropical Depression 19 is forecast to move generally west northwestward the rest of this weekend over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, there is significant uncertainty in where Tropical Depression 19 will track and how much it will intensify.

Confidence:

• There is lower than normal confidence in the track and intensity forecast especially beyond Sunday. The expected impacts could still change significantly.

Impacts:

Storm Surge:

• Using a Cat 1 MEOW moving from the NW at 5 mph
  • 8 to 12 feet above ground level for coastal areas from Mouth of the MS River to Biloxi, MS.
  • 4 to 8 feet above ground level for coastal areas from Biloxi, MS to MS/AL border and along the shores of Lake Pontchartrain and Maurepas.
  • 3 to 7 feet from Morgan City to the Mouth of the MS River.

• At a minimum, plan for several low-lying, coastal roads to become impassable due to flooding. 

• Some areas may become cut off or inaccessible 

• Storm surge levels will be highly dependent on the eventual track, size, and intensity of the system. There is a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast at this time and storm surge values are expected to change as forecast confidence increases.

Rainfall/Flooding:

• Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is currently forecast. Locally higher amounts will be possible

• Expect ponding of water in low lying areas and potential for localized flash flooding

Wind and tornado:

• Sustained tropical storm force winds with higher gusts are forecast with the strongest winds expected along the immediate coast.

• These winds could result in minor damage mainly to trees, power lines, and weaker structures. 

• A few tornadoes will be possible in the storm’s rain bands. Tornadoes in these situations are typically short-lived, but they move very quickly.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent around 11 AM CDT.