Tropical Storm Nicholas Update September 13, 2021 At 4 PM

Click HERE for an update concerning Tropical Storm Nicholas in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Local impacts that were briefed earlier remain largely the same.

Changes from the Previous Update:

• A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for portions of our area from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

Overview:

• Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to continue northward before making landfall on the south Texas coast late tonight or early Tuesday.
• A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by later tonight.  
• Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph. Gradual strengthening is possible while Nicholas approaches the northwestern Gulf coast later tonight. 

Confidence:

• Confidence on the track and intensity is currently moderate, however, confidence is moderate to high with the potential of heavy rain and storms across portions of the area through the middle to later parts of the week.

Impacts:

• Regardless of development, a steady increase in moisture is expected to continue today, lasting through the week with rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms likely.
• Locally heavy rainfall and intense rain rates (2-3" per hour) may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially Wednesday. 
• 4-8" will be possible across the area with locally higher totals possible. 
• Lingering debris from Ida recovery will block drainage systems, which will contribute to a higher than normal risk of flash flooding  
• Minor coastal inundation around high tide could occur by Tuesday or Wednesday over mainly the lowest-lying areas west of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

See the briefing below for graphics pertaining to Tropical Storm Nicholas.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent after the 10 PM CT advisory, earlier if there are significant changes. There will be a webinar briefing at 2 PM CT tomorrow, September 14, 2021.

If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.