Tropical Storm Nicholas Update - September 14th, 2021 5 AM

Click HERE for an update concerning Tropical Strom Nicholas

Changes from the previous update: 

• The forecast track continues to show a slow track eventually stalling and dissipating over Southwest Louisiana.

• The storm has already made landfall over the central TX coast and will continue to weaken through the next 48 hours. The intensity has not changed over Louisiana or Mississippi.

• The threat of heavy rainfall across the local area associated with this system continues to remain high thus a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the entire area from now through 7 AM Friday.

Overview:

• Tropical Storm Nicholas made landfall along the central Texas coast late last night and is expected to quickly weaken to a tropical depression as it moves through Southeast Texas today. The system is projected to move into Southwest Louisiana on Wednesday and then remain stalled over Southwest Louisiana through Thursday as it slowly dissipates into a remnant low-pressure system.

Confidence:

• We are confident that this storm will bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of the area. We have less confidence in the specific locations which will see the heaviest rainfall and the most significant flooding issues.

Impacts:

Rainfall/Flooding:

• Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is currently forecast. Locally higher amounts will be possible. The rainfall threat will be highest today and Wednesday across the entire region.

• Several areas could experience flash flooding with life-threatening flash flooding possible in areas that receive the most rain

• As water drains into area rivers, flooding will be possible

Storm Surge:

• Coastal Flood Advisories are now in effect for coastal areas outside of the protected levee systems. Elevated tides are likely, especially on today and Wednesday during the high tide cycle

• 1 to 2 ft. of inundation will be possible along with immediate coastal areas of Louisiana to the west of the Mississippi River. 

• Expect low-lying, coastal roads to be flooded and a few may become impassable

Tornado:

• A few tornadoes will be possible in the storm’s rain bands today. Tornadoes in these situations are typically short-lived, but they move very quickly.

• The highest tornado threat will generally be west of a Baton Rouge to New Orleans line.

The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.

Additional Information and Resources:

NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans

NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief

NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix

River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix

NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans

NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans

Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report

National Hurricane Center Website: https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent around 4 PM CDT.  If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.