Emergency Managers of Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi --
Here is an update on the tropics.
Changes from the previous update:
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The chance of development in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days has increased to 70%.
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Confidence continues to increase that very heavy rainfall will occur in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi, so a preliminary forecast rainfall graphic has been included.
Overview:
There is a LOW (20%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days.
There is a HIGH (70%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.
Impacts:
- This system could impact the northern Gulf Coast region late this week and over the weekend, and although there is high uncertainty on any specific impacts this far out, the greatest concern at this point remains heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
- Preliminary rainfall forecast amounts are expected to mostly range from 4-10 inches with some areas possibly seeing greater than 10 inch amounts. We emphasize this is preliminary, and amounts could shift lower or higher depending on the exact track, size and speed of movement of the tropical system.
- Now is the time to review preparedness plans since we are only in the beginning of hurricane season.
The attached graphics below highlight the likely development area and the preliminary rainfall forecast:
Additional Information and Resources:
NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans
NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief
NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix
River Gauges and Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lix
NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans
NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans
Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report
National Hurricane Center Website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Next Update and Contact Information:
The next update will be sent if the chances of development increase or if changes warrant an update. If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429. Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster. Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.
Regards,
Tim Destri
Meteorologist
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge
