Tropical Weather Outlook -- June 15th, 2021

Click HERE and HERE  for an update on the tropics.

Changes from the previous update:

• The chance of development in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days remains at 70%.

• Confidence continues to increase that very heavy rainfall will occur in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi.

OVERVIEW:

There is a LOW (20%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days.  

There is a HIGH (70%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.  

IMPACTS:

• This system could impact the northern Gulf Coast region late this week and over the weekend. Although there is high uncertainty on any specific impacts this far out, the greatest concern remains heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
• Preliminary rainfall forecast amounts are expected to mostly range from 4-10 inches, with some areas possibly seeing greater than 10-inch amounts. We emphasize this is preliminary, and amounts could shift lower or higher depending on the exact track, size, and speed of movement of the tropical system.
• Now is the time to review preparedness plans since we are only at the beginning of hurricane season.

The attached hyperlinks graphics above highlight the likely development area and the preliminary rainfall forecast:

Next Update and Contact Information:

The next update will be sent if the chances of development increase or if changes warrant an update.  If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us.  We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429.  Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster.  Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Messages will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.

Regards,
Erickson
Meteorologist
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge