Tropical Weather Outlook -- June 16th, 2021

Click HERE, HERE, and HERE for the latest update on the tropics.

Changes from the previous update: 

• The chance of development in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 2 days has increased to 60%, and over the next 5 days has increased to 90%

• Confidence continues to increase that very heavy rainfall will occur in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi.

• Marginal risk of severe weather mainly along and south of the interstate 10/12 corridor for SE LA.

Overview:

There is a MEDIUM (60%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days.

There is a HIGH (90%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.

Impacts:

• This system could impact the northern Gulf Coast region starting Friday through the weekend. Without a formed system, there is high uncertainty on any specific impacts, but the greatest concern remains heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
• Preliminary rainfall forecast amounts are expected to mostly range from 4-10 inches, with some areas possibly seeing greater than 10-inch amounts. We emphasize this is preliminary, and amounts could shift lower or higher depending on the exact track, size, and speed of movement of the tropical system.
• Increased tides will be possible across our area. Coastal Inundation of 2-3 ft with some locations seeing 4ft possible. These ranges are preliminary and are dependent upon the size, track, and strength of the system.
• Now is the time to review preparedness plans since we are only at the beginning of hurricane season.

The above-hyperlinked graphics highlighted the likely development area and the forecasted preliminary rainfall and areas at risk for severe weather associated with this system.