Tropical Weather Outlook -- June 15th, 2 PM

Click HERE for an update on the tropics.

Changes from the previous update: 

• The chance of development in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days has increased to 80%.

• Confidence continues to increase that very heavy rainfall will occur in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi.

Overview:

There is a MEDIUM (40%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 2 days.

There is a HIGH (80%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.  

Impacts:

• This system could impact the northern Gulf Coast region late this week and over the weekend. Although there is high uncertainty on any specific impacts this far out, the greatest concern remains heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding.
• Preliminary rainfall forecast amounts are expected to mostly range from 4-10 inches, with some areas possibly seeing greater than 10-inch amounts. We emphasize this is preliminary, and amounts could shift lower or higher depending on the exact track, size, and speed of movement of the tropical system.
• Increased tides will be possible across our area. Coastal Inundation of 2-3 ft with some locations seeing 4ft possible. These ranges are preliminary and are dependent upon the size, track, and strength of the system.
• Now is the time to review preparedness plans since we are only at the beginning of hurricane season.

The attached hyperlink above the graphics highlights the likely development area and the preliminary rainfall forecast.